Case of the Dueling Exit Polls
Following up on Jeff's comment, the LA Time's national exit polls (PDF) show the vote split at 86% for Kerry and 14% for Bush, which is considerably less* than the 88% for Kerry cited by Jeff via MSNBC and at least the 90% for Gore--would this now 5% swing explain some of the difference?
Also, the LA Times article that summarized the trend (and which links to the results of the national exit polls) notes that Bush also picked up more of the Latino vote this time around.
* Granted, 2% might not be considered "considerably less" but when you're looking at gains and instead get a slide...
Also, the LA Times article that summarized the trend (and which links to the results of the national exit polls) notes that Bush also picked up more of the Latino vote this time around.
* Granted, 2% might not be considered "considerably less" but when you're looking at gains and instead get a slide...
posted by Kevin at 11/05/2004 04:18:00 PM
1 Comments:
Hmm...I though you didn't like the L.A. Times and called it "crap." Well, I still stand behind my number of 88%. Here's the CNN election data, which confirms MSNBC: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
Anyways, African Americans made up 11% of the eleltorate, which equals their proprotion of the general population. Two percent of that is about 250,000 votes spread out acrosss the country, which wouldn't sway the election unless ALL those people lived in Ohio.
In any case, Kerry won the black vote. Bush only got 11% of them in 2004, which is the lowest a GOP candidate has received, except for 2000. This single digit slide of 2% is still very small when you consider Kerry comes from a non-Southern state that's predominantly white. He even outperformed Jimmy Carter, who like Clinton and Gore, was from the South.
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